Saturday, February 07, 2015

The Kejri Correction

The Delhi Vidhan Sabha (State Govt.) elections are being seen as a big event by the media. Maybe it is significant because it might be the one last hurrah of anti-BJP parties to stop the Modi-BJP juggernaut.  A defeat here will certainly deflate them for the more crucial and larger state elections due later.

Since Delhi sends only 7 MPs (or 1.3% of total MPs) to the Parliament, even a NIL tally hardly makes any significant impact for the ruling party or indication of its popularity. A neck to neck contest, will mean even less so for the NDA. 

Nonetheless, it is being built up as the first (possible) setback for BJP. Some reports indicate that AAP may actually take the lead in a photo finish or with Congress support.

Scenarion of Possible AAP win: the positives for India
However, an AAP win may be in some way beneficial for the country.

Talks over, show the work now: So far, AAP has only been in the talking mode. Talk is easy.  In my view, their ability to run even a small city-state like Delhi is arguable.

Kejriwal & Co.'s ability of organization & direction, crucial for good administration are un proven. Also, their disregard of basic economics sense & their penchant for biased populism runs a danger of anarchy and their actions may soon be stymied by litigations & PILs. Their last time, some of their decisions regarding power bills reprives etc. was biased & questionable, in my opinion. Even 1-2 years of government will expose their skills (or lack of it) to everybody.

In other words, they will be forced to walk their talk. Sure AAP can for some time manage, by running huge deficits and by creating a smorgasbord of policies succeed in fooling the people for some time. But eventually, the citizen will see through and assess whether she is happy or otherwise.

  • IF AAP Govt. succeeds & Delhi is better off: BJP will have competition, and India will have a viable alternative to the regional parties. Since long India, has been looted by Islamic invaders, the British and of late, the Congress (Ghandy-Nehru family) party. We terribly need good alternatives to achieve optimal growth & eradicate poverty.
  • IF AAP Govt. fails & Delhi is a mess:  If they fail and Delhi state machinery comes to a chaos, then at least the nation will have a model to compare BJP/Modi’s Governance with.

Bihar elections more crucial - Rajya Sabha superiority crucial

Already, due to their numerical superiority in the Rajya Sabha, the opposition is able to stonewall progressive bills like the Coal bill etc. that the NDA introduces. This is expected to continue for some more time.

Hence, it is imperative for the NDA to grab control of the Upper House to get any meaningful work done. This is because, the more time is wasted, the more frustrated the electorate may get. Bihar has 16 members in the Rajya Sabha (6.5% of total), Delhi none.

In this stalemate situation, the anti incumbency feeling against NDA may increase and impact them in the Bihar elections, due later. An anarchist AAP Govt. in the not Delhi, even for a few months, will be a good contrast to the Central Govt. and may actually help NDA avoid the anti-incumbency factor in Bihar elections.

Video: Cheesy...but says it.He he :) 

For markets: Discounts time
The Delhi Legislative Assembly election results will come out on Tuesday, 10th Feb 2015. If some media reports are right and the AAP/Congress are able to cobble together a majority, the markets may take a correction that many experts have been waiting for some time now.

In that scenario, I don’t expect blue chips to be impacted much, but midcaps and especially lesser known/covered stocks may see significant correction. I feel, this may be a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at discounts. 

Friday, June 06, 2014

My Cinderella Man

My dear Bhaiya (elder brother),
Today you are fighting one of the hardest battles of your life, each day and each moment is a battle. And let me tell you, each day when I see you, I swell with pride that you, the toughest man I know, is you, my own elder brother.

Fighting cancer is tough. But defying doctors and their negative thoughts each and every time, shows who is the toughest of them all.

Honestly, I believe you had a Charlie Sheen kind of good looks and style. I can never be smart or as good looking as you were a few years ago but I don’t care. Every young brother has a hero, and mine is YOU. And who wants to compete with their idols?

Your magnetic personality makes people remember you for years afterwards, even if they met you for a few minutes. I am sure many more “Amit Shankar”-s of the world are waiting for you to come and change their world for the better in a matter of minutes.

I know you would have made a killing on the equity markets on the trading side. Get well soon and I hope and dream of you making millions on the markets.
Please do.

Your biggest fan,

Your younger brother.

PS: Cinderalla Man, is a movie about a boxer who fights back poverty, bad health during the Great Depression to win back glory and fame for his family. Its inspired from the real-life of James Broddock.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

A Nation emerges

Some time back my good friend Shirish liked & shared a video of a news report by a prominent NDTV journo of rampant Caste system still entrenched in hinterlands of UP. I neither liked the report nor the journo and frankly told Shirish so. For me, the journalist and his usual reports are like “grains of sand in one’s the eye….painful, irritating and blurring the vision”

Shrish demanded an explanation and here is what I have to say in my defense.

Shirish being the literary kind, would have read both “The lord of the Flies(1954)” and “The Coral Island (1858)”, books published with a century in between with similar premise: innocent, teen-aged Christian boys stranded on an uninhabited Pacific island. The similarity, sadly ends there. 

While the Coral Island is an endearing story of courage, adventure, friendship and heroism, the LOTF tale is about the group quickly degenerating to a barbaric state with groups and individuals lusting for power and not sparing even gruesome violence to achieve it. In short, it takes a very dim view of the human mind and reactions which I found very depressing. Now, in my view, human nature has such wide dimensions and possibilities of individual or group reaction to any event are infinite. But why wallow in the negative always? Why not listen, learn and train our thoughts towards the positive and the good?

Agreed, that the scourge of caste system is centuries old and still real in India. Surely it would still exist in many deep pockets of our country. Anybody with even a mobile camera can come up with several such instances and episodes in our villages to prove it exists. But what’s new in that dude? It as if somebody shows footage of “Slumdog Millionaire” to prove terrible poverty still exists in India. Duh. I think how Indians are overcoming regressive and primitive social customs is news, NOT how some illiterate Brahmins-Harijans still interact in some sleepy hamlet. So, my point is simply this: what new or unique this (or such) reports bring out? Merely highlighting regressive aspects of society still exists, for me serves very little purpose.  

Thankfully, I believe that most of the country too, is eager to throw away the non-sense of caste etc based mindset. The nation has dumped such old moth-eaten ideas and instead got out and voted in huge numbers for somebody whose sole election plank was “Good governance for ALL” which is a great positive for India.

A new India is emerging with fresh thoughts like a butterfly from the restricting cocoon of old ideologies. 

That's News Shirish.